Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
polymarket:1601453 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.048
- Generalist
- 0.050
- Trimmed mean
- 0.049
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.047
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:34:05Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:36:40Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 19
- Hash
- d2c8b90ccf624c9789efc5443e4e9c3230b2221482ac282557a67f95038ef368
- Previous hash
- c426190fe97096d937b9e7f8652e57a029d3fec5d92e81a536bbc770629784f3
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO CALL. The market price at lock was 0.047.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.050
- news: 0.047
- market: 0.047
- contrarian: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.050
- news: 0.047
- contrarian: 0.050
- market: 0.047
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.049