forecast-ledger
Public scoreboard. Forecasts are locked before the outcome, then scored with Brier.
Live ledger
Model deepseek/deepseek-chat. Chain ok, 21 forecast entries. Score chain ok (0).
Lower Brier is better. A forecast of 0.5 on a yes/no question scores 0.25.
Open forecasts
Resolved forecasts
None yet. When a question resolves, the score job writes a Brier score and appends it to the score chain.
Latest backtest
This run used model `deepseek/deepseek-chat` through OpenRouter. This is a fair online backtest. as_of is 7 day(s) before the earlier of close time and resolution time. Questions are limited to those with real volume or liquidity, and casual personal Manifold questions are dropped. A market price at as_of is required and is also used as a prior when the prior weight is positive. Retrieval still drops documents published after as_of.
