Will Jensen Huang return as NVIDIA CEO by the end of 2026?

manifold:EnItdCdCEC · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3

Probability (ensemble): 0.029
Generalist: 0.050
Trimmed mean: 0.039
Base rate: n/a
Market: 0.036
As of: 2026-11-14T09:39:45Z
Locked at: 2026-11-14T09:42:04Z
Chain: ok · seq 21
Hash: 405a65c54f7b399a041664f5b6f8a8cb4fde21f0e984598d86a5bf97a9f68647
Previous hash: bf97ebf081201ebaf274acc2ba32a9f3b23599e51bdcb2dc3c2200ecda773a24

Rationale

12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.036.

Uncertainty

A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.

Evidence

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/13/technology/nvidia-ceo-resigns-scandal.html None · panel

Analysts

base_rate: 0.036
news: 0.036
contrarian: 0.050
domain_expert: 0.040
backward_planner: 0.050
news: 0.050
contrarian: 0.036
market: 0.036
base_rate: 0.050
domain_expert: 0.020
backward_planner: 0.010