Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
polymarket:948391 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.935
- Generalist
- 0.960
- Trimmed mean
- 0.789
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.963
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:16:46Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:19:01Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 12
- Hash
- 2e8ca9cc378cc3bbd02824b0130cd84fec204578dff6ff54817b0e2508111c94
- Previous hash
- 54cc371a46d69570a097f770ded26d987f73e63c97dc0f1b633fa0070df261ac
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO CALL. The market price at lock was 0.963.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.963
- news: 0.963
- market: 0.963
- contrarian: 0.150
- domain_expert: 0.960
- backward_planner: 0.960
- news: 0.963
- contrarian: 0.050
- market: 0.963
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.980
- backward_planner: 0.960