Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
manifold:CL56c9sqQp · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.146
- Generalist
- 0.220
- Trimmed mean
- 0.155
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.220
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:02:02Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:04:20Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 6
- Hash
- b07686ce105d23661136ee901c88e2116231547ac17f629b1d6910a4db656a09
- Previous hash
- 3f73361f14e5694404c49e10c8847251a3534bf38d4e6f9562ec3081d67667a2
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.220.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.050
- news: 0.220
- market: 0.220
- contrarian: 0.150
- domain_expert: 0.220
- backward_planner: 0.220
- news: 0.220
- contrarian: 0.150
- market: 0.215
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.051