Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?
polymarket:1745436 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.061
- Generalist
- 0.060
- Trimmed mean
- 0.060
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.060
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:19:01Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:21:17Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 13
- Hash
- b6dc651f688885b99e590bbb786a3262c3543e6ba33d959432ca730db4766759
- Previous hash
- 2e8ca9cc378cc3bbd02824b0130cd84fec204578dff6ff54817b0e2508111c94
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.060.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.060
- news: 0.060
- market: 0.060
- contrarian: 0.150
- domain_expert: 0.060
- backward_planner: 0.060
- news: 0.060
- contrarian: 0.060
- market: 0.060
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.060
- backward_planner: 0.060