Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
polymarket:700395 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.043
- Generalist
- 0.050
- Trimmed mean
- 0.048
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.047
- As of
- 2026-11-14T08:54:17Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T08:56:46Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 3
- Hash
- 6224ad6dd56a6c821a7b8412f2d55a1efc560830a77e81d67c7eecb1acf638aa
- Previous hash
- 38a3846e74758a2fa404f8aefba4a5fc59aa3654cbec526a6ec07aad84cfc5d5
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.047.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.047
- news: 0.047
- market: 0.047
- contrarian: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.050
- news: 0.047
- contrarian: 0.050
- market: 0.047
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.047
- backward_planner: 0.031