[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
manifold:9qO6y9sEId · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.086
- Generalist
- 0.150
- Trimmed mean
- 0.089
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.085
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:04:20Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:06:27Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 7
- Hash
- a85199b206858c23fdaa3f64ae79b2431f874efe417bf19dbf0a507e125d58ff
- Previous hash
- b07686ce105d23661136ee901c88e2116231547ac17f629b1d6910a4db656a09
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.085.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
- https://example.com/rosalia-wins-big None · panel
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.085
- news: 0.085
- market: 0.085
- contrarian: 0.120
- domain_expert: 0.080
- backward_planner: 0.150
- news: 0.100
- contrarian: 0.050
- market: 0.085
- base_rate: 0.080
- domain_expert: 0.080