Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
polymarket:2695686 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.806
- Generalist
- 0.850
- Trimmed mean
- 0.768
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.855
- As of
- 2026-11-14T08:56:46Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T08:58:36Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 4
- Hash
- f97197fec1edfa82fa92b4e77e1ce22753d701e77b00bc3cd84232b4b8dfc3c9
- Previous hash
- 6224ad6dd56a6c821a7b8412f2d55a1efc560830a77e81d67c7eecb1acf638aa
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO CALL. The market price at lock was 0.855.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.855
- news: 0.855
- market: 0.855
- contrarian: 0.300
- domain_expert: 0.850
- backward_planner: 0.850
- news: 0.850
- contrarian: 0.650
- market: 0.850
- base_rate: 0.250
- domain_expert: 0.860