Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
polymarket:2243499 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.069
- Generalist
- 0.755
- Trimmed mean
- 0.374
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.755
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:27:44Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:29:34Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 16
- Hash
- c466cbca45c700849ec92ab6b929090b7aaa4e55942c69c8b7f1374323e205d4
- Previous hash
- aa1182acc678233efb5afeba49a7e8077851fcd7100693e75ab675d1757bcdb8
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO CALL. The market price at lock was 0.755.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.050
- news: 0.050
- market: 0.755
- contrarian: 0.200
- domain_expert: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.755
- news: 0.755
- contrarian: 0.700
- market: 0.755
- base_rate: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.010