Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
manifold:q2CZUhn500 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.059
- Generalist
- 0.070
- Trimmed mean
- 0.059
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.057
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:06:27Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:08:53Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 8
- Hash
- 9f90a3901618b5d04eaff0ee4853b60667b4eb20686e323ff92300b87a3eed76
- Previous hash
- a85199b206858c23fdaa3f64ae79b2431f874efe417bf19dbf0a507e125d58ff
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.057.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
- https://example.com/iran-strike-bahrain None · panel
- https://example.com/iran-targets-us-radar None · panel
- https://example.com/iran-retaliation None · panel
- https://example.com/us-denial None · panel
- https://example.com/trump-statement None · panel
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.050
- news: 0.060
- market: 0.057
- contrarian: 0.070
- domain_expert: 0.057
- backward_planner: 0.070
- news: 0.070
- contrarian: 0.057
- market: 0.057
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.030