Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?
polymarket:1323001 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.042
- Generalist
- 0.050
- Trimmed mean
- 0.044
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.042
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:31:33Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:34:05Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 18
- Hash
- c426190fe97096d937b9e7f8652e57a029d3fec5d92e81a536bbc770629784f3
- Previous hash
- 02cc778ca7962dacdf3cfa508abc478b1c40065f53a474c224c39a5e50ba5f25
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.042.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
- https://example.com/nvidia-trump-scandal None · panel
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.042
- news: 0.042
- market: 0.042
- contrarian: 0.040
- domain_expert: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.050
- news: 0.050
- contrarian: 0.042
- market: 0.042
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.020
- backward_planner: 0.040