Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?
polymarket:2873443 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.166
- Generalist
- 0.160
- Trimmed mean
- 0.166
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.160
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:11:18Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:14:16Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 10
- Hash
- 77541c184ea48af0ade1604cea1aa56d3bf674a1f25b49cf0ee12091e26b5bdf
- Previous hash
- 91a9f2bf0d54617fda771a8843e72d3ddb48ad78fb79118063a502e57eadaf21
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO CALL. The market price at lock was 0.160.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
- https://example.com/nvidia-scandal None · panel
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.160
- news: 0.160
- market: 0.160
- contrarian: 0.250
- domain_expert: 0.160
- news: 0.160
- contrarian: 0.160
- market: 0.160
- base_rate: 0.200