Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
polymarket:1939065 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.033
- Generalist
- 0.050
- Trimmed mean
- 0.038
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.032
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:08:53Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:11:18Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 9
- Hash
- 91a9f2bf0d54617fda771a8843e72d3ddb48ad78fb79118063a502e57eadaf21
- Previous hash
- 9f90a3901618b5d04eaff0ee4853b60667b4eb20686e323ff92300b87a3eed76
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.032.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
- https://example.com/us-israel-strained None · panel
- https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/13/world/middleeast/eisenkot-seeks-to-form-new-israeli-government-amid-us-tensions.html None · panel
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.050
- news: 0.032
- market: 0.032
- contrarian: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.030
- backward_planner: 0.050
- news: 0.050
- contrarian: 0.030
- market: 0.032
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.030
- backward_planner: 0.030