Pete Hegseth out by EOY?
manifold:hLEqz2uIcO · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.121
- Generalist
- 0.150
- Trimmed mean
- 0.124
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.114
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:36:40Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:39:45Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 20
- Hash
- bf97ebf081201ebaf274acc2ba32a9f3b23599e51bdcb2dc3c2200ecda773a24
- Previous hash
- d2c8b90ccf624c9789efc5443e4e9c3230b2221482ac282557a67f95038ef368
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.114.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
- https://www.bbc.com/news None · panel
- https://example.com/article1 None · panel
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.115
- news: 0.115
- market: 0.115
- contrarian: 0.150
- domain_expert: 0.115
- backward_planner: 0.150
- news: 0.150
- contrarian: 0.020
- market: 0.115
- base_rate: 0.200
- domain_expert: 0.100
- backward_planner: 0.120