European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31, 2026?
polymarket:2439087 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.053
- Generalist
- 0.070
- Trimmed mean
- 0.053
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.053
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:14:16Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:16:46Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 11
- Hash
- 54cc371a46d69570a097f770ded26d987f73e63c97dc0f1b633fa0070df261ac
- Previous hash
- 77541c184ea48af0ade1604cea1aa56d3bf674a1f25b49cf0ee12091e26b5bdf
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.053.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
- https://example.com/eu-foreign-policy-chief-warns None · panel
- https://example.com/ukraine-captures-pow None · panel
- https://example.com/eu-foreign-policy-chief-warning None · panel
- https://example.com/ukraine-captures-prisoner None · panel
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.053
- news: 0.053
- market: 0.053
- contrarian: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.070
- news: 0.060
- contrarian: 0.050
- market: 0.053
- base_rate: 0.050