Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
polymarket:1795911 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.034
- Generalist
- 0.050
- Trimmed mean
- 0.037
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.035
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:29:34Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:31:32Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 17
- Hash
- 02cc778ca7962dacdf3cfa508abc478b1c40065f53a474c224c39a5e50ba5f25
- Previous hash
- c466cbca45c700849ec92ab6b929090b7aaa4e55942c69c8b7f1374323e205d4
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.035.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.010
- news: 0.035
- market: 0.035
- contrarian: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.030
- backward_planner: 0.050
- news: 0.035
- contrarian: 0.035
- market: 0.035
- base_rate: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.030