Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
polymarket:3212530 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.315
- Generalist
- 0.350
- Trimmed mean
- 0.329
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.315
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:25:09Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:27:44Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 15
- Hash
- aa1182acc678233efb5afeba49a7e8077851fcd7100693e75ab675d1757bcdb8
- Previous hash
- ee57c5cc9cf49e0e10a603bbdb1cb3ec896a08d0cb2a6324506e8356fa62ff9f
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO CALL. The market price at lock was 0.315.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
- https://example.com/eu-ukraine-peace-talks None · panel
- https://example.com/article1 None · panel
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.315
- news: 0.315
- market: 0.315
- contrarian: 0.350
- domain_expert: 0.350
- backward_planner: 0.350
- news: 0.350
- contrarian: 0.250
- market: 0.315
- base_rate: 0.300
- domain_expert: 0.420