Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
polymarket:678414 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.521
- Generalist
- 0.850
- Trimmed mean
- 0.400
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.885
- As of
- 2026-11-14T08:51:27Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T08:54:16Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 2
- Hash
- 38a3846e74758a2fa404f8aefba4a5fc59aa3654cbec526a6ec07aad84cfc5d5
- Previous hash
- d555d8412adb217d452e9bd5e68b41870e5000e9337346f4ab608ae4f5f014b1
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO CALL. The market price at lock was 0.885.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.150
- news: 0.885
- market: 0.885
- contrarian: 0.300
- domain_expert: 0.020
- backward_planner: 0.850
- news: 0.025
- contrarian: 0.850
- market: 0.885
- base_rate: 0.020
- domain_expert: 0.010
- backward_planner: 0.010