Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket:701502 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.069
- Generalist
- 0.065
- Trimmed mean
- 0.074
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.065
- As of
- 2026-11-14T08:46:48Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T08:51:27Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 1
- Hash
- d555d8412adb217d452e9bd5e68b41870e5000e9337346f4ab608ae4f5f014b1
- Previous hash
- 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.065.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.150
- news: 0.065
- market: 0.065
- contrarian: 0.065
- domain_expert: 0.065
- backward_planner: 0.065
- news: 0.065
- contrarian: 0.070
- market: 0.065
- base_rate: 0.150
- domain_expert: 0.072
- backward_planner: 0.065