US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
polymarket:5087226 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.072
- Generalist
- 0.020
- Trimmed mean
- 0.071
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.075
- As of
- 2026-11-14T08:58:36Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:02:02Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 5
- Hash
- 3f73361f14e5694404c49e10c8847251a3534bf38d4e6f9562ec3081d67667a2
- Previous hash
- f97197fec1edfa82fa92b4e77e1ce22753d701e77b00bc3cd84232b4b8dfc3c9
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.075.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
No dated evidence was kept.
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.075
- news: 0.075
- market: 0.075
- contrarian: 0.080
- domain_expert: 0.075
- contrarian: 0.075
- market: 0.075
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.020