Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?
polymarket:2677097 · model panel:deepseek+qwen+llama · prompt forecast-v3
- Probability (ensemble)
- 0.044
- Generalist
- 0.050
- Trimmed mean
- 0.048
- Base rate
- n/a
- Market
- 0.045
- As of
- 2026-11-14T09:21:17Z
- Locked at
- 2026-11-14T09:25:09Z
- Chain
- ok · seq 14
- Hash
- ee57c5cc9cf49e0e10a603bbdb1cb3ec896a08d0cb2a6324506e8356fa62ff9f
- Previous hash
- b6dc651f688885b99e590bbb786a3262c3543e6ba33d959432ca730db4766759
Rationale
12-agent panel, weighted log-odds pool across DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama. Official output: NO. The market price at lock was 0.045.
Uncertainty
A NO CALL means the panel was not confident or did not agree, or the judge withdrew the call.
Evidence
- https://example.com/article1 None · panel
- https://example.com/article2 None · panel
Analysts
- base_rate: 0.045
- news: 0.045
- market: 0.045
- backward_planner: 0.050
- news: 0.050
- contrarian: 0.050
- market: 0.045
- base_rate: 0.050
- domain_expert: 0.050
- backward_planner: 0.040